If April showers bring May flowers
what does a winter warming trend bring? Answer: distorted data. And that continues
to be the story as existing home sales continue the winning streak of recent housing
reports with upside surprises.
Existing home sales jumped by 5%
in December as all four regions saw sales rise. Prices fell by only 2.5% Yr/yr
about half the drop of one month ago.
It is the highest sales pace for
existing home sales since January
We are cautioning about the
housing data because of the unusually warm weather.
Note that the largest gains this
month were in the normally cold weather regions of the NE and Mid-west. In the
NE sales rose by 10.7%; in the Mid-west they rose by 8.3% despite still poor
economic conditions. In the South and West sales rose by less than 3% in the month
(still a good performance). Winter weather is less a factor in the South except
for wetness while the West is a mixed weather region.
Housing has probably been
distorted upward this winter. All the reports have showed strength
recently and they are not usually in lock-step.
Now that winter has come and
with a vengeance in some places we can look for the housing data to beat a
retreat. We are not negative on housing, just wary of the degree of
ebullience.
3 comments:
I think the run-up in housing has been a bit of a head fake. I am not thinking there will be a big leg down like many commentators, but do believe we will be in for a period of just kind of bumping a;long at the bottom.
Its going to take a lot more than a little good weather to turn the housing market around.
Housing is in bad shape.
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