Thursday, February 4, 2010

Tough day for optimism

Feb 4th 2010
We appropriately flagged the Euro data as problematic this morning. The world is linked. Europe is having trouble with debt. Not that the US is sitting pretty; but it has dug itself out before. Europe is untested and not so incidentally, untrusted.

The back tracking in the jobless claims report is unwelcome news. Even the continued progress in the ISMs and their respective employment indices leave us wanting. Jobless claims need to continue to drop to signal strong expansion. Claims instead are now moving sideways. This is not a good development.

Stock market nervousness is sensible in this environment. Of course it's bit odd coming ahead the employment report instead of after it. We are at risk to that report after this stock market sell off. after all there are some good strong reports in addition the one s that are lacking. We are expecting to see a strong downward revision to worsen joblessness in addition to the losses already suffered. In that respect it will be hard for the market to find news that is good enough to rally off once this report is released.

Still markets are sold off now and the news is still mixed. How long before the usual transition to strength shows its hand? Or it it just not going to happen? That now seems to be a more serious question that it was before. It's not one I have asked before.



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