Oil slickens the deficit path for US trade as exports drop

US trade deficit surges on OIL

…erodes without it

 

The trade deficit in November widened sharply from $43.2bln to $47.7bln. This one month $.4.5blm widening will knock something off GDP unless it comes back to us as inventory gains, which ahs been a common occurrence.

Exports fell by 1.2% in Nov while imports rose by 1.3%. Excluding petroleum exports fell by 1.2% and imports snaked up by 0.1% making the point that with or without oil the trade deficit got worse. 

With this report the ebullience of exports is thrown into question as three-month  export growth is now negative and exports are in a clear downward path of deceleration with growth rates of 10.3% over 12-months, 2.4% over six-months and -0.5% over three-months. The global growth slowing is hitting the US. Meanwhile, the US growth acceleration is boosting imports whose growth is 12.7% over 12-months and fell to -0.6% over six months but has sprung back to 4% over three-months. 

Landed oil prices rose by 3.7% in the month as the volume of imports surged by 4.5% a lethal combination for the deficit. The non-petroleum deficit worsened by about $1.5bln.