Friday, October 17, 2008

Markets up on ether-not fundamentals

Markets are up on Warren Buffet's optimism and on Google's earnings...

But isn't the easiest thing to do in a bad economy to sit there and click on internet sites triggering ad income?

And didn't Warren Buffet lock up preferred shares with high fixed returns in two of the safest ( in one case Fed-protected) companies of our time: GE and Goldman?

Warren isn't out there bottom fishing buying up troubled banks- he's cream-skimming.

On the other hand what did happen is this;
  • The U of M consumer sentiment index fell more sharply month-to-month than it ever has before in any month going back to 1978.
  • The U of M current conditions index fell more strongly month to month than ever before and reached lowest monthly level ever.
  • Housing starts fell to one their lowest levels ever; permits is a 25 year low. AND this is before the financial sector came unglued.
  • On Thursday, the Philly Fed MFG index fell to a point that it is so low that it is lower only 1.5% of the time over the past 38 years.
  • Earlier this week, consumer spending (retail sales) showed that it is falling at a 4% rate in 2008-Q3.
  • Industrial production fell by 2.8% in one month.
Really makes you want to buy stocks eh?

Why are you so bullish Warren? Going to scoop up some more preferred shares by helping out more ailing US blue chip companies?

It can't be the optimism over the economy...or over earnings, not with economic benchmarks like that.

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