ADP shows increasing progress

The ADP rose by 209K while last months gain was revised up to 230K

Last month's revised ADP nearly his the private non-farm gain of 233 on the head.

over the last 51months the ADP and the private nonfarm jobs gains post the same average gain

over the last 34months the ADP averages a gain of 12K compared to the nonfarm private gain of 35K

over the last 24months the ADP averages a gain of 126K compared a PNF gain of 156K

over the last 12 months the ADP rose by 32K less than did the PNF survey

So over the last 24 months as well as over the last 12months the NFP gain has averaged 31K more than the ADP.

Moreover the ADP by size data show that employment levels for small services are now ABOVE their levels as the recession STARTED- its a 'complete recovery' for job losers in services but, of course, it means we have not put new job seekers to work there and have not kept up with the needs of population growth ( for 32-months running -a long time and bit omission). Still given the weakness of this recovery to date this is impressive.  Service sector (private) employment in total only lags its prerecession level by 1.2%. 

The goods sector despite its 'progress' and despite the first gain in MFG jobs in a year in the past decade still shows employment levels in the GOODS SECTOR are 16% BELOW their recession threshold level.

On balance it looks like the ADP points to a private jobs gain of about 230K to 240K

There is progress and good progress in some sectors but others are still lagging very far behind.